Tanlines, Pain and Marginal Gains: Elite World Championship Preview: Firenze 2013

This weekend the eyes of the entire global cycling community will be fixed thoroughly on Florence, Italy for the Elite World Road Race Championships. The 272km race kicks off at 10am from the walled city of Lucca and from there, it will make its way to the Mandela Forum in Florence herself, but not before taking in 10 laps of a 16.6km circuit. Including in these circuits is a 3.9km climb into Fiesole followed by a technical twisting descent into the short steep climb of Via Salviati that averages at 12% and maxes out at claimed 19.4% (although the official route says 16%, further googling of local Garmin files say different.) So even if a dying rider manages to bury himself over the 4km climb into Fiesole, the Via Salviati may well be his undoing. It's not that long, but it doesn't need to be, at 600m, expect some riders to be 20 seconds back the road here.

The Finishing Circuit

Philippe Gilbert win last year's event, with Norway's Boassen Hagen and Spain's Valverde rounding off the podium respectively. Out of the 27 rider group that finished together last year, expect no more than 6 of those riders to feature at the pointy end of things this time around, those riders being Gilbert, Moreno, Valverde, Nibali, Sagan and Voeckler. Not much can be told from last year's results than can be carried through to this year's event. The course last year was a real powerhouse course, where the course favoured Gilbert over Nibali. This time around the exact opposite is true. Last year in Valkenburg, the Cauberg was a mere 1500 metres long with a maximum gradient of 12% and the Bemelerberg that was 1200m in length with a maximum gradient of 6%. This year, the two climbs outrank the Cauberg, one in length and the other by way of gradient. Last year the length in total was 267km, with 10 laps of the finishing circuit. Which means that last year had a grand total of 27km of climbing incorporated into the route. This year, it's more than double that. This year, 58km of the course is covered by going towards the sky, a third of the overall race distance.

Obviously, being a biased Irishman I'll be keeping a sharp eye on Dan Martin and another sharp eye on Nicolas Roche, both of whom are enjoying the seasons of their careers. The punchy course will suit Martin perfectly, and he showed he was in attacking form in last week's Tour of Britain. He should be in great form and itching to get going on the start line. Nicolas Roche is proving his mettle as one of the World's best riders at moment, he was the commentators favourite in the Vuelta, where he wore every jersey on offer, taking a stage in fine style and capping it off with 5th overall. His morale will be high, which should leave the others shaking in their Sidis. Obviously the engines in the team for the first 210km of the race will be Brammeier and Bennett, who both have enjoyed wins and big results of late. And let's face it, we too enjoyed it immensely as well.

The riders in my opinion that are most likely to be in the mix for the rainbow bands, their name in the history books and to have the chance to ponder "the curse of the rainbow jersey" over their winter miles are slim in numbers. The opinions expressed below are that of my own. The may not always be right but they are never wrong.

Chris Froome - Great Britain

The Kenyan-born British rider is at the end of a season which in truth should have happened a year before it did. He won this year's Tour, but more importantly he won it by attacking and winning mountain stages, which mimics what sort of racing he can expect this Sunday. He can count on Wiggins for help too, which is an advantage worth two ordinary riders.

Richie Porte - Australia

The pocket-sized Tasmanian was Chris Froome's most prolific lieutenant at this year's Tour, and could well have been a Tour contender otherwise. He's a man that no-one is really thinking about in terms of this race, but I think he is definitely able to bag a podium place. A big asset to him this time around is that he has no-one to use his legs for. Any energy he spends on Sunday will be for his own benefit. He has enjoyed spells in yellow in various races already this year, so his confidence will be high coming into the event. He can also time trial extremely well, a case he proved even more when he and the rest of Team Sky took 3rd in the Team Time Trial last Sunday. He should be more than able to cope with explosive attacks from the likes of Rodriguez and Quintana.

Fabian Cancellara - Switzerland

I myself think he is a bit of a long shot, given the parcours. But who am I to doubt this man. We've seen him time and time again get over the Cipressa and the Poggio to fight it out in San-Remo. Plus the fact that he says he's focussed on this event. Back earlier in the season he was focussed to win Flanders and Roubaix, and he did. So don't count him out yet. If Contador is 'El Pistolero', then Cancellara is 'El Gattlin Gun-o'.

Peter Sagan - Slovakia

The barometer of cool amongst the shaven leg society has to be one of the biggest favourites for this event. Earlier in the year we've seen him unfazed by Nibali in the Tirreno Adriatico, and then put it up to Cavendish and Greipel in a straight dash to the line. It seems as though there's literally nothing this man cannot do. He's not Slovak, he's Fast-vak.

Joaquim Rodriguez - Spain

The man who is more commonly labelled as Purito, whenever there's a dull moment in the commentary box. Purito means 'little cigar' in Spanish, suggesting that he leaves a trail of smoke wherever he goes. He bagged a stage in the Vuelta, in the same fashion as will be expected of him on Sunday. He's in good form and never fails to perform and make the race exciting. He was 6th in 2008 and 3rd in 2009.

Philippe Gilbert - Belgium

The reigning champion won in fine style last year, but has failed to regain his best form for any of the Classics in early season. But his 2012 season is pretty much identical to this year's, with his first win coming in week 2 of the Vuelta on both occasions. Only a fool with underestimate Philippe Gilbert. Belgium will once again field a numerically strong team, and as they showed last year, it counts. They had 4 men inside the top 5 when the time came.

Vincenzo Nibali - Italy

The Italian has the advantage of riding on home soil. He will be the fan favourite which will spur him on a bit. But all the spurring on in the World won't help him if he doesn't have the legs to walk the walk. He's had his best season to date so hopefully he can carry it through. The descent will suit him, if he has but a 5 second gap, that could well be all he needs into the Via Salviati.

Dan Martin and Nicolas Roche - Ireland

The two Irishmen are real contenders for medals. Both have the abilities to fight all the way, and even fight back. Roche has the gutsy-ness that's needed on the day of the Worlds, and the legs to back up the gutsy-ness. Whilst Dan Martin has honed his racing head a lot this year, it really has worked well for him. If Rodriguez is Purito, then Dan is Todóg, the Irish for cigar. Deal with that, Joaquim.

Nairo Quintana - Colombia

The Colombian is fast becoming one of the best climbers in the World. Chris Froome got the better of him in weeks 1 and 2 of the Tour, but Quintana got the better of him in the closing stages, getting himself a stage win and cleaning up the best young riders jersey. One of his most valuable assets, aside from his ferocious climbing abilities, is his poker face. It could well pay dividends after 272 kilometres.

Before I sign off, here's a little something to get you all fired up for Sundays clash of the titans.